We track performance for two sets of stock recommendations: 1) stocks from Company Reports and 2) stock warnings from Stock at Risk updates. The weekly Stock at Risk updates are based primarily on Stocks at Risk model results. The Company Reports are published after further fundamental analysis.
1. Performance of Stocks from Company Reports Short recommendations outstanding at least 90 days have yielded alpha averaging 6.2% (58% producing positive alpha) over the 90 days after publication. Those outstanding 180 days have produced alpha of 12.3% with two-thirds (67%) producing positive alpha. Stock by stock detail is provided to clients and prospective clients.
2. Performance of stock warnings from Stock at Risk updates Year to date, we have warned on 117 companies. Seventy-four of those warnings have been in force for at least 90 days. Of these, fifty-eight (58%) have produced short alpha of at least 5% over the 90 day period (“short winners”). Nineteen percent (19%) produced negative short alpha of at least 5% (“short losers”). The average short alpha for all YTD warnings at 90 days was positive +6.6%. For warnings outstanding 180 days, the results are: 59% produced short alpha of at least 5%, 19% produced negative short alpha of at least -5%. The average alpha for the stocks during this period was 10.2%.
