Stock at Risk Updates
- Provides investors with a list of the most dangerous stocks.
- Highlights names that have become significantly riskier
- Discusses three or four individual companies and why they are at risk
- SAR names are the starting point of our investment process
Company report: InvenSense (INVN)
- INVN designs microelectronic mechanical devices for cellphones, tablets and other applications
- Our models detected inventory slow downs, speculative valuation and slowing business trends
- Competitive analysis showed the commoditization of their products and declining ASPs
- The stock fell 35% within the year.
Company report: Iconix Brands (ICON)
- Sales and profits are significantly overstated due to questionable accounting for joint venture transactions; Organic sales & profits are declining.
- The declines are related to declines in mall traffic and pressure from internet retailers.
- The company is highly levered but leverage is masked by non-cash EBITDA adjustments
- Insiders are selling
- The stock fell 60%+ within 6 months. The SEC is reviewing ICON’s accounting.
- Highlights sectors where new short exposure is going
- Contains stock charts of the largest spikes and drops in short interest
Company Charts & Datasets (on request) includes:
- Time series data on key company metrics
- An extensive comparable companies analysis (outlier statistics are highlighted for easy interpretation)
- Time series charts on the company versus its comparables
- Scatter plots of forecast growth and valuation multiples
- Revisions trends vs. its comparables
- Correlations of stock price to various estimate revisions
Special Report: What Ails the Shorts? Q3 2013
- This special reports dissects why short investors were losing money so quickly during H2 2013
- Discusses the role of momentum and high growth stocks
- How valuation was working exactly in reverse of how it should work
What’s working? March 3, 2014: Lower your beta, sell momentum shares
- TRA recommended selling momentum shares on March 3, 2014.
- The report Identified the performance and valuation of a wide range of company and stock characteristics
- It identified how market sentiment translates into investor preferences.
Factor Time Series
- Highlights the stock and company characteristics currently adding to returns
- Tells us when investors are paying too much for certain characteristics, such as growth or clean balance sheets.
- This weekly report shows where Wall Street is revising estimates, by sector, industry and individual stock, organized for easy interpretation
- It also discusses the degree of analysts agreement, the strength of the estimate revisions trend and where prices are moving at odds with estimate trends