Welcome

Two Rivers is an institutional research firm serving hedge funds, mutual fund companies, family offices and RIA’s. We are dedicated to providing actionable, high quality investment ideas, with an emphasis on short recommendations.

Results

Since inception, Two Rivers’ average short recommendation has underperformed the S&P by 7.0% over the subsequent 3 months and 13.2% over 6 months (not annualized). Fifty-seven percent (57%) of recommendations have produced alpha over 3 months, and 67% over 6 months.

Last year, in a difficult year for short selling, TRA achieved an 8.7% short return relative to the S&P and 18.8% short alpha.

recommend returns

( S&P returns are matched with each short recommendation.  Beta per FactSet.  Stats for 2013 are for reports published in 2013 and measured from report date through year end 2013.)

Some notable short recommendations include A123 Systems (AONE), Central European Distribution Co. (CEDC) and Overseas Shipholding (OSG), all of which went bankrupt after our short recommendations.  We have also written short reports on Deckers Outdoor (DECK), US Steel (X), GrafTech Inc. (GTI), Quicksilver Resources (KWK), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), Guidewire Software (GWRE) generating short profits for our clients.

Process

Our process combines a ranking system designed specifically for short-selling and fundamental analysis. Our models call out companies for:

  • Poor earnings quality
  • Deteriorating business trends
  • Dangerous Financial Condition
  • Speculative or unjustified valuations
  • And red flags extracted from the footnotes of SEC filings.

Our Work:

Our independence as a research firm enables us to follow the data where it leads. We provide a perspective frequently at odds with standard sell-side research, in particular, that of the larger investment firms.  In short, Two Rivers Analytics generates insights that help clients outperform their peers and save time.

  • Provides a steady stream of short ideas to hedge funds
  • Helps avoid companies with hidden risks on the long side: manipulated earnings, breaking businesses, ‘red flags’, cash flow issues or expensive companies
  • Provides a rigorous sell discipline, for which an independent voice is critical
  • Saves analysts’ and PMs’ time in getting to good ideas faster
  • Deploys a suite of tools to support clients’ efforts

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Stocks at Risk Model, Fundamental Research, Types of Shorts

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Short Research, Other Work

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